Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–3 Sokół Ostróda

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Sokół Ostróda

11/20/2021

II Liga - East · Round 18Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki52%

×Draw23%

Sokół Ostróda25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiExpected goals in this matchSokół Ostróda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.20

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.83

Sokół Ostróda

1.20

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 53% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 35 away

1.55

creates per match

1.06

1.33

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.55

Sokół Ostróda

1.06

allows per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.33

Sokół Ostróda

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓

Sokół Ostróda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw

75%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Sokół Ostróda

77%

Draw or Sokół Ostróda

48%

Winning margin

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

29%

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

84%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

54%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

28%

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals

70%

Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals

34%

Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

68%

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.55 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.06 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more

52%

level

23%

Sokół Ostróda scores more

25%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff