Sokół Ostróda vs Lech Poznań II — II Liga - East 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
Sokół Ostróda37%
Lech Poznań II38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 34 home / 86 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sokół Ostróda ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches
Lech Poznań II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sokół Ostróda attack 1.24 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40
Lech Poznań II attack 1.14 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.44
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Lech Poznań II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Lech Poznań II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Górnik Łęczna
Widzew Łódź
GKS Katowice
Bytovia Bytów
Resovia Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
Garbarnia Kraków
Olimpia Elbląg
Znicz Pruszków
Pogoń Siedlce
Górnik Polkowice
Stargard SzczecińskiLech Poznań II
SKRA Częstochowa
Stal Stalowa Wola
Elana Toruń
Legionovia Legionowo
Gryf WejherowoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sokół Ostróda host Lech Poznań II on Friday, 28 August 2020 at 14:00. The match is part of the II Liga - East 2019/2020 season.
II Liga - East: Sokół Ostróda 2–0 Lech Poznań II
Sokół Ostróda beat Lech Poznań II 2-0 in II Liga - East on August 28, 2020.
The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.