Lech Poznań II 1–1 Sokół Ostróda: Result & Stats

Lech Poznań II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sokół Ostróda

3/6/2021

II Liga - East · Round 20Stadion Amiki Wronki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Lech Poznań II48%

×Draw24%

Sokół Ostróda28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech Poznań IIExpected goals in this matchSokół Ostróda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.27

Lech Poznań II

1.73

Sokół Ostróda

1.27

Lech Poznań II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 35 away

1.35

creates per match

1.06

1.49

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Lech Poznań II

1.35

Sokół Ostróda

1.06

allows per match

Lech Poznań II

1.49

Sokół Ostróda

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań II ↓

Sokół Ostróda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lech Poznań II or draw

72%

Lech Poznań II or Sokół Ostróda

76%

Draw or Sokół Ostróda

52%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+

26%

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals

82%

Lech Poznań II 2+ goals

52%

Lech Poznań II 3+ goals

25%

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals

72%

Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals

36%

Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)

63%

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.49 · 85 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań II attack 1.35 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.06 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lech Poznań II scores more

48%

level

24%

Sokół Ostróda scores more

28%

Lech Poznań II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lech Poznań II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff