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Sokół Ostróda vs GKS Katowice — II Liga - East 2019

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
6/12/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 38Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokół Ostróda29%
×Draw24%
GKS Katowice47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.22
GKS Katowice
1.63

GKS Katowice creates 34% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.24
GKS Katowice
1.51

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.74
GKS Katowice
1.20

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

GKS Katowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
53%
Sokół Ostróda or GKS Katowice
76%
Draw or GKS Katowice
71%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
12%
GKS Katowice wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
70%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
34%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
12%
GKS Katowice 1+ goals
80%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
48%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
38%
GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.24 + GKS Katowice defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

GKS Katowice attack 1.51 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
29%
level
24%
GKS Katowice scores more
47%

GKS Katowice at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Sokół Ostróda 3–2 GKS Katowice

Sokół Ostróda beat GKS Katowice 3-2 in II Liga - East on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.