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GKS Katowice vs Sokół Ostróda — II Liga - East 2019

GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
2/27/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 19Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

GKS Katowice59%
×Draw21%
Sokół Ostróda20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice
2.04
Sokół Ostróda
1.10

GKS Katowice creates 85% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 35 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice
1.97
Sokół Ostróda
1.06

allows per match

GKS Katowice
1.14
Sokół Ostróda
2.11

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par
Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Sokół Ostróda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw
80%
GKS Katowice or Sokół Ostróda
79%
Draw or Sokół Ostróda
41%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+
36%
Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals
87%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
60%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
33%
Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
67%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
30%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
75%
Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.97 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.04

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.06 + GKS Katowice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

GKS Katowice scores more
59%
level
21%
Sokół Ostróda scores more
20%

GKS Katowice at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: GKS Katowice 2–1 Sokół Ostróda

GKS Katowice beat Sokół Ostróda 2-1 in II Liga - East on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa in Katowice.