Sokół Ostróda 3–4 Broń Radom: Result & Stats

Sokół Ostróda

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Broń Radom

3/4/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Ostróda40%

×Draw22%

Broń Radom38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół OstródaExpected goals in this matchBroń Radom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.76

Sokół Ostróda

1.81

Broń Radom

1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 103 away

1.76

creates per match

1.17

2.35

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda

1.76

Broń Radom

1.17

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda

2.35

Broń Radom

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Broń Radom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Broń Radom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw

62%

Sokół Ostróda or Broń Radom

78%

Draw or Broń Radom

60%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+

21%

Broń Radom wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals

84%

Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals

54%

Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals

27%

Broń Radom 1+ goals

83%

Broń Radom 2+ goals

52%

Broń Radom 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)

51%

Broń Radom (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

Broń Radom away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.76 + Broń Radom defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.81

Broń Radom attack 1.17 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more

40%

level

22%

Broń Radom scores more

38%

Sokół Ostróda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sokół Ostróda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff