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Broń Radom vs Sokół Ostróda — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Broń Radom
Broń Radom
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
8/6/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Broń Radom48%
×Draw24%
Sokół Ostróda28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broń Radom
1.65
Sokół Ostróda
1.19

Broń Radom creates 39% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

Broń Radom
1.48
Sokół Ostróda
1.12

allows per match

Broń Radom
1.25
Sokół Ostróda
1.82

finishing

Broń Radom+0.00on par
Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broń Radom ↓

Sokół Ostróda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Broń Radom or draw
72%
Broń Radom or Sokół Ostróda
76%
Draw or Sokół Ostróda
52%

Winning margin

Broń Radom wins by 2+
25%
Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Broń Radom 1+ goals
81%
Broń Radom 2+ goals
49%
Broń Radom 3+ goals
23%
Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
70%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
33%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Broń Radom (draw refunded)
64%
Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broń Radom at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broń Radom attack 1.48 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.12 + Broń Radom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Broń Radom scores more
48%
level
24%
Sokół Ostróda scores more
28%

Broń Radom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Broń Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Broń Radom 3–1 Sokół Ostróda

Broń Radom beat Sokół Ostróda 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Radom.