Sokół Ostróda 2–1 Błonianka Błonie: Result & Stats

Sokół Ostróda

FT

2 – 1

Błonianka Błonie

6/10/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Ostróda36%

×Draw22%

Błonianka Błonie42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół OstródaExpected goals in this matchBłonianka Błonie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.86

Sokół Ostróda

1.69

Błonianka Błonie

1.86

Błonianka Błonie creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

1.76

creates per match

1.37

2.35

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda

1.76

Błonianka Błonie

1.37

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda

2.35

Błonianka Błonie

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Błonianka Błonie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw

58%

Sokół Ostróda or Błonianka Błonie

78%

Draw or Błonianka Błonie

64%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+

18%

Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals

82%

Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals

50%

Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals

24%

Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals

84%

Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals

55%

Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)

46%

Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

Błonianka Błonie away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.76 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.37 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more

36%

level

22%

Błonianka Błonie scores more

42%

Błonianka Błonie at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff