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Błonianka Błonie vs Sokół Ostróda — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
11/11/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Stadion Błonianka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Błonianka Błonie44%
×Draw23%
Sokół Ostróda33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Błonianka Błonie
1.77
Sokół Ostróda
1.49

Błonianka Błonie creates 19% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

creates per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.73
Sokół Ostróda
1.12

allows per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.85
Sokół Ostróda
1.82

finishing

Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par
Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Błonianka Błonie ↓

Sokół Ostróda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Błonianka Błonie or draw
67%
Błonianka Błonie or Sokół Ostróda
77%
Draw or Sokół Ostróda
56%

Winning margin

Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
24%
Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
83%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
53%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
26%
Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
77%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
44%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
58%
Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Błonianka Błonie at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.73 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.12 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Błonianka Błonie scores more
44%
level
23%
Sokół Ostróda scores more
33%

Błonianka Błonie at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Błonianka Błonie 2–3 Sokół Ostróda

Sokół Ostróda beat Błonianka Błonie 3-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Błonianka in Błonie.