Sokół Kleczew 3–1 Polonia Środa: Result & Stats

Sokół Kleczew

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Polonia Środa

3/15/2025

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Sokół Kleczew42%

×Draw23%

Polonia Środa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół KleczewExpected goals in this matchPolonia Środa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.52

Sokół Kleczew

1.71

Polonia Środa

1.52

Sokół Kleczew creates 13% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 101 away

1.88

creates per match

1.74

1.31

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Sokół Kleczew

1.88

Polonia Środa

1.74

allows per match

Sokół Kleczew

1.31

Polonia Środa

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par

Polonia Środa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Kleczew ↓

Polonia Środa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sokół Kleczew or draw

66%

Sokół Kleczew or Polonia Środa

77%

Draw or Polonia Środa

58%

Winning margin

Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+

22%

Polonia Środa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals

82%

Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals

51%

Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals

24%

Polonia Środa 1+ goals

78%

Polonia Środa 2+ goals

45%

Polonia Środa 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)

55%

Polonia Środa (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Kleczew at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

Polonia Środa away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.54 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.88 + Polonia Środa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.71

Polonia Środa attack 1.74 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sokół Kleczew scores more

42%

level

23%

Polonia Środa scores more

34%

Sokół Kleczew at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sokół Kleczew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff