Polonia Środa 2–3 Sokół Kleczew: Result & Stats

Polonia Środa

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Sokół Kleczew

3/18/2023

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Polonia Środa43%

×Draw23%

Sokół Kleczew34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia ŚrodaExpected goals in this matchSokół Kleczew

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.50

Polonia Środa

1.70

Sokół Kleczew

1.50

Polonia Środa creates 13% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 84 away

1.94

creates per match

1.48

1.51

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Polonia Środa

1.94

Sokół Kleczew

1.48

allows per match

Polonia Środa

1.51

Sokół Kleczew

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Środa+0.00on par

Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Środa ↓

Sokół Kleczew →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Polonia Środa or draw

66%

Polonia Środa or Sokół Kleczew

77%

Draw or Sokół Kleczew

57%

Winning margin

Polonia Środa wins by 2+

22%

Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Polonia Środa 1+ goals

82%

Polonia Środa 2+ goals

51%

Polonia Środa 3+ goals

24%

Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals

78%

Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals

44%

Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Polonia Środa (draw refunded)

56%

Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Środa at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.51 · 102 matches

Sokół Kleczew away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.46 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Środa attack 1.94 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.48 + Polonia Środa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Polonia Środa scores more

43%

level

23%

Sokół Kleczew scores more

34%

Polonia Środa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Polonia Środa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff