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Sokół Kleczew vs Pogoń Szczecin II — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Sokół Kleczew
Sokół Kleczew
FT
2 – 0
Pogoń Szczecin II
Pogoń Szczecin II
9/7/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Sokół Kleczew45%
×Draw23%
Pogoń Szczecin II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Kleczew
1.75
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.45

Sokół Kleczew creates 21% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 104 away

creates per match

Sokół Kleczew
1.88
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.58

allows per match

Sokół Kleczew
1.31
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.61

finishing

Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par
Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Kleczew ↓

Pogoń Szczecin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sokół Kleczew or draw
68%
Sokół Kleczew or Pogoń Szczecin II
77%
Draw or Pogoń Szczecin II
55%

Winning margin

Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+
24%
Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals
83%
Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals
52%
Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals
25%
Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals
77%
Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals
42%
Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)
58%
Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Kleczew at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

Pogoń Szczecin II away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.61 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.88 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.75

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 1.58 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sokół Kleczew scores more
45%
level
23%
Pogoń Szczecin II scores more
32%

Sokół Kleczew at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sokół Kleczew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Sokół Kleczew 2–0 Pogoń Szczecin II

Sokół Kleczew beat Pogoń Szczecin II 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kleczew.