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Pogoń Szczecin II vs Sokół Kleczew — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pogoń Szczecin II
Pogoń Szczecin II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Sokół Kleczew
Sokół Kleczew
3/2/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin II49%
×Draw22%
Sokół Kleczew29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Szczecin II
1.89
Sokół Kleczew
1.41

Pogoń Szczecin II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 84 away

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin II
2.32
Sokół Kleczew
1.48

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin II
1.34
Sokół Kleczew
1.46

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par
Sokół Kleczew+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin II ↓

Sokół Kleczew →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin II or draw
71%
Pogoń Szczecin II or Sokół Kleczew
78%
Draw or Sokół Kleczew
51%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+
27%
Sokół Kleczew wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals
85%
Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals
56%
Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals
29%
Sokół Kleczew 1+ goals
76%
Sokół Kleczew 2+ goals
41%
Sokół Kleczew 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)
63%
Sokół Kleczew (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

Sokół Kleczew away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.46 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 2.32 + Sokół Kleczew defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sokół Kleczew attack 1.48 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pogoń Szczecin II scores more
49%
level
22%
Sokół Kleczew scores more
29%

Pogoń Szczecin II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogoń Szczecin II vs Sokół Kleczew

Sokół Kleczew beat Pogoń Szczecin II 4-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.