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Sokół Aleksandrów vs Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
FT
1 – 0
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
3/13/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów49%
×Draw24%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.65
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.14

Sokół Aleksandrów creates 45% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.08
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
0.78

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
2.22

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw
74%
Sokół Aleksandrów or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
76%
Draw or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
51%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
26%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
81%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
49%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
23%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals
68%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals
32%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
65%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 0.78 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
49%
level
24%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more
26%

Sokół Aleksandrów at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sokół Aleksandrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Sokół Aleksandrów 1–0 Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

Sokół Aleksandrów beat Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka in Aleksandrów Łódzki.