Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 0–1 Sokół Aleksandrów

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

FT

0 – 1

Sokół Aleksandrów

6/3/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Stadion 1 Maja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie37%

×Draw25%

Sokół Aleksandrów38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ruch Wysokie MazowieckieExpected goals in this matchSokół Aleksandrów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.47

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

1.45

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 52 away

1.19

creates per match

1.13

1.81

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

1.19

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.13

allows per match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

1.81

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie or draw

62%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie or Sokół Aleksandrów

75%

Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów

63%

Winning margin

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+

17%

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals

77%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals

42%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals

18%

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals

77%

Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals

43%

Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)

49%

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 1.19 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more

37%

level

25%

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more

38%

Sokół Aleksandrów at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sokół Aleksandrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff