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Sokół Aleksandrów vs Polonia Warszawa — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
4/16/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów26%
×Draw25%
Polonia Warszawa49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.07
Polonia Warszawa
1.57

Polonia Warszawa creates 47% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 36 away

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.08
Polonia Warszawa
1.64

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50
Polonia Warszawa
1.06

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par
Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Polonia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw
51%
Sokół Aleksandrów or Polonia Warszawa
75%
Draw or Polonia Warszawa
74%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
10%
Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
66%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
29%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
9%
Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
79%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
46%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
35%
Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.07

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.64 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
26%
level
25%
Polonia Warszawa scores more
49%

Polonia Warszawa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Aleksandrów vs Polonia Warszawa

Polonia Warszawa beat Sokół Aleksandrów 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka in Aleksandrów Łódzki.