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Polonia Warszawa vs Sokół Aleksandrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
1 – 0
Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
12/4/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Polonia Warszawa62%
×Draw21%
Sokół Aleksandrów17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
2.05
Sokół Aleksandrów
0.96

Polonia Warszawa creates 114% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 52 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
2.40
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.13

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
0.80
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.71

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
83%
Polonia Warszawa or Sokół Aleksandrów
79%
Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów
38%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
38%
Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
87%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
61%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
33%
Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
62%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
25%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
79%
Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 35 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 2.40 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.05

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Polonia Warszawa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
62%
level
21%
Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
17%

Polonia Warszawa at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Warszawa vs Sokół Aleksandrów

Polonia Warszawa beat Sokół Aleksandrów 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on December 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.