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Sokół Aleksandrów vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
FT
0 – 1
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
4/5/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów45%
×Draw25%
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.60
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
1.28

Sokół Aleksandrów creates 25% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.08
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
1.06

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
2.12

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw
69%
Sokół Aleksandrów or Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
75%
Draw or Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
55%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
23%
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
80%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
47%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
22%
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 1+ goals
72%
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 2+ goals
37%
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
59%
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Polonia Lidzbark Warm. defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.60

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. attack 1.06 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
45%
level
25%
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. scores more
31%

Sokół Aleksandrów at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sokół Aleksandrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Sokół Aleksandrów 0–1 Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. beat Sokół Aleksandrów 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka in Aleksandrów Łódzki.