Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 2–2 Sokół Aleksandrów

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

FT

2 – 2

Sokół Aleksandrów

9/7/2024

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion Polonii Lidzbark Warmiński

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.47%

×Draw24%

Sokół Aleksandrów29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.Expected goals in this matchSokół Aleksandrów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.27

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

1.68

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.27

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

1.65

creates per match

1.13

1.41

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

1.65

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.13

allows per match

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

1.41

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.+0.00on par

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. or draw

71%

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. or Sokół Aleksandrów

76%

Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów

53%

Winning margin

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. wins by 2+

25%

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 1+ goals

81%

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 2+ goals

50%

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 3+ goals

24%

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals

72%

Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals

36%

Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. (draw refunded)

62%

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. attack 1.65 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.68

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Polonia Lidzbark Warm. defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. scores more

47%

level

24%

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more

29%

Polonia Lidzbark Warm. at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Polonia Lidzbark Warm. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff