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Sokół Aleksandrów vs Pelikan Łowicz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
FT
0 – 0
Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
6/19/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów36%
×Draw26%
Pelikan Łowicz38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.32
Pelikan Łowicz
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 86 away

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.08
Pelikan Łowicz
1.23

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50
Pelikan Łowicz
1.56

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par
Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw
62%
Sokół Aleksandrów or Pelikan Łowicz
74%
Draw or Pelikan Łowicz
64%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
16%
Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
73%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
38%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
15%
Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
74%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
39%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
49%
Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.32

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
36%
level
26%
Pelikan Łowicz scores more
38%

Pelikan Łowicz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Sokół Aleksandrów 0–0 Pelikan Łowicz

Sokół Aleksandrów and Pelikan Łowicz drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka in Aleksandrów Łódzki.