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Pelikan Łowicz vs Sokół Aleksandrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
FT
1 – 1
Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
8/8/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion Pelikan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pelikan Łowicz49%
×Draw24%
Sokół Aleksandrów27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelikan Łowicz
1.67
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.19

Pelikan Łowicz creates 40% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 52 away

creates per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.62
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.13

allows per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.26
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.71

finishing

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par
Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelikan Łowicz ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pelikan Łowicz or draw
73%
Pelikan Łowicz or Sokół Aleksandrów
76%
Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów
51%

Winning margin

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
26%
Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
81%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
50%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
23%
Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
70%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
33%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
64%
Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelikan Łowicz at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.62 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pelikan Łowicz scores more
49%
level
24%
Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
27%

Pelikan Łowicz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pelikan Łowicz vs Sokół Aleksandrów

Pelikan Łowicz and Sokół Aleksandrów drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pelikan in Łowicz.