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Sokół Aleksandrów vs Olimpia Zambrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
FT
0 – 1
Olimpia Zambrów
Olimpia Zambrów
5/29/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów37%
×Draw26%
Olimpia Zambrów37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.33
Olimpia Zambrów
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 49 away

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.08
Olimpia Zambrów
1.14

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50
Olimpia Zambrów
1.59

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par
Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Olimpia Zambrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw
63%
Sokół Aleksandrów or Olimpia Zambrów
74%
Draw or Olimpia Zambrów
63%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
17%
Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
74%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
38%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
15%
Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals
73%
Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals
38%
Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
50%
Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Olimpia Zambrów away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.14 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
37%
level
26%
Olimpia Zambrów scores more
37%

Sokół Aleksandrów at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sokół Aleksandrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Aleksandrów vs Olimpia Zambrów

Olimpia Zambrów beat Sokół Aleksandrów 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka in Aleksandrów Łódzki.