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Olimpia Zambrów vs Sokół Aleksandrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Olimpia Zambrów
Olimpia Zambrów
FT
1 – 4
Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
11/28/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Olimpia Zambrów43%
×Draw24%
Sokół Aleksandrów33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Zambrów
1.67
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.44

Olimpia Zambrów creates 16% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 52 away

creates per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.64
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.13

allows per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.74
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.71

finishing

Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par
Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Zambrów ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Olimpia Zambrów or draw
67%
Olimpia Zambrów or Sokół Aleksandrów
76%
Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów
57%

Winning margin

Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+
22%
Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals
81%
Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals
50%
Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals
23%
Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
76%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
42%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)
56%
Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Zambrów at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.64 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olimpia Zambrów scores more
43%
level
24%
Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
33%

Olimpia Zambrów at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olimpia Zambrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olimpia Zambrów vs Sokół Aleksandrów

Sokół Aleksandrów beat Olimpia Zambrów 4-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Zambrów.