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Sokół Aleksandrów vs Legia Warszawa II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
6/1/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów28%
×Draw24%
Legia Warszawa II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.20
Legia Warszawa II
1.64

Legia Warszawa II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 104 away

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.08
Legia Warszawa II
1.77

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50
Legia Warszawa II
1.32

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par
Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Legia Warszawa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw
52%
Sokół Aleksandrów or Legia Warszawa II
76%
Draw or Legia Warszawa II
72%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
11%
Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
70%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
34%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
12%
Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
81%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
49%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
37%
Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Legia Warszawa II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Legia Warszawa II attack 1.77 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
28%
level
24%
Legia Warszawa II scores more
48%

Legia Warszawa II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Sokół Aleksandrów 0–1 Legia Warszawa II

Legia Warszawa II beat Sokół Aleksandrów 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on June 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka in Aleksandrów Łódzki.