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Legia Warszawa II vs Sokół Aleksandrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legia Warszawa II
Legia Warszawa II
FT
3 – 1
Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
11/8/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Legia Warszawa II57%
×Draw21%
Sokół Aleksandrów22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legia Warszawa II
2.05
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.19

Legia Warszawa II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 52 away

creates per match

Legia Warszawa II
2.40
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.13

allows per match

Legia Warszawa II
1.24
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.71

finishing

Legia Warszawa II+0.00on par
Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa II ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa II or draw
78%
Legia Warszawa II or Sokół Aleksandrów
79%
Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów
43%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa II wins by 2+
34%
Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa II 1+ goals
87%
Legia Warszawa II 2+ goals
61%
Legia Warszawa II 3+ goals
33%
Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
70%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
33%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa II (draw refunded)
72%
Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa II at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa II attack 2.40 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.05

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Legia Warszawa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Legia Warszawa II scores more
57%
level
21%
Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
22%

Legia Warszawa II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Legia Warszawa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legia Warszawa II vs Sokół Aleksandrów

Legia Warszawa II beat Sokół Aleksandrów 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Grodzisk Mazowiecki.