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Sokół Aleksandrów vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
11/9/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów37%
×Draw24%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.08
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.63

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.91

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par
Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Lechia T. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw
61%
Sokół Aleksandrów or Lechia T. Mazowiecki
76%
Draw or Lechia T. Mazowiecki
63%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
17%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
78%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
44%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
19%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
79%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
46%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
48%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.91 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.50

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.63 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
37%
level
24%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more
39%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lechia T. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Sokół Aleksandrów 0–3 Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Lechia T. Mazowiecki beat Sokół Aleksandrów 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka in Aleksandrów Łódzki.