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Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Sokół Aleksandrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
FT
0 – 0
Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
10/17/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Stadion im. Braci Gadajów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki50%
×Draw24%
Sokół Aleksandrów26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.74
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.19

Lechia T. Mazowiecki creates 46% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 52 away

creates per match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.77
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.13

allows per match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.26
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.71

finishing

Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par
Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia T. Mazowiecki ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lechia T. Mazowiecki or draw
74%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki or Sokół Aleksandrów
76%
Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów
50%

Winning margin

Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
27%
Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
82%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
52%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
25%
Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
70%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
33%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
66%
Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.26 · 104 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.77 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.74

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more
50%
level
24%
Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
26%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lechia T. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Lechia T. Mazowiecki 0–0 Sokół Aleksandrów

Lechia T. Mazowiecki and Sokół Aleksandrów drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Braci Gadajów in Tomaszów Mazowiecki.