Sokół Aleksandrów vs Jagiellonia II — III Liga - Group 1 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 52+ matches
Sokół Aleksandrów35%
Jagiellonia II40%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 52 home / 103 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sokół Aleksandrów ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches
Jagiellonia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.67 · 103 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38
Jagiellonia II attack 1.48 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.49
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Jagiellonia II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Swit
Legionovia Legionowo
Polonia Warszawa
Kutno
Unia Skierniewice
Znicz Biała Piska
Ursus Warszawa
Legia Warszawa II
Błonianka Błonie
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Broń RadomSokół Aleksandrów
Pelikan Łowicz
Wikielec
Concordia ElblągJagiellonia II
Radomsko
Olimpia Zambrów
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
Huragan Morąg
WasilkówIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sokół Aleksandrów host Jagiellonia II on Saturday, 27 March 2021 at 14:00. The match is part of the III Liga - Group 1 2020/2021 season.
III Liga - Group 1: Sokół Aleksandrów 1–2 Jagiellonia II
Jagiellonia II beat Sokół Aleksandrów 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 27, 2021.
The match was played at Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka in Aleksandrów Łódzki.