Jagiellonia II 1–0 Sokół Aleksandrów

Jagiellonia II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sokół Aleksandrów

10/20/2024

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Jagiellonia II47%

×Draw24%

Sokół Aleksandrów30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jagiellonia IIExpected goals in this matchSokół Aleksandrów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.33

Jagiellonia II

1.73

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.33

Jagiellonia II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 52 away

1.76

creates per match

1.13

1.53

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Jagiellonia II

1.76

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.13

allows per match

Jagiellonia II

1.53

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia II ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Jagiellonia II or draw

70%

Jagiellonia II or Sokół Aleksandrów

76%

Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów

53%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+

25%

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals

82%

Jagiellonia II 2+ goals

52%

Jagiellonia II 3+ goals

25%

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals

74%

Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals

38%

Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)

61%

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia II attack 1.76 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jagiellonia II scores more

47%

level

24%

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more

30%

Jagiellonia II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff