Sokół Aleksandrów 1–1 Concordia Elbląg

Sokół Aleksandrów

FT

1 – 1

Concordia Elbląg

5/15/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów50%

×Draw23%

Concordia Elbląg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół AleksandrówExpected goals in this matchConcordia Elbląg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.27

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.82

Concordia Elbląg

1.27

Sokół Aleksandrów creates 43% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

1.08

creates per match

1.04

1.50

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.08

Concordia Elbląg

1.04

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.50

Concordia Elbląg

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Concordia Elbląg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw

73%

Sokół Aleksandrów or Concordia Elbląg

77%

Draw or Concordia Elbląg

50%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+

28%

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals

84%

Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals

54%

Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals

27%

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals

72%

Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals

36%

Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)

65%

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.82

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more

50%

level

23%

Concordia Elbląg scores more

27%

Sokół Aleksandrów at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sokół Aleksandrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff