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Concordia Elbląg vs Sokół Aleksandrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
FT
0 – 3
Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
9/19/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Concordia Elbląg42%
×Draw25%
Sokół Aleksandrów33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Elbląg
1.50
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.29

Concordia Elbląg creates 16% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

creates per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.29
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.13

allows per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.45
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.71

finishing

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par
Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Elbląg ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Concordia Elbląg or draw
67%
Concordia Elbląg or Sokół Aleksandrów
75%
Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów
58%

Winning margin

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
21%
Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
78%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
44%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
19%
Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
72%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
37%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
56%
Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Elbląg at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.29 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Concordia Elbląg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Concordia Elbląg scores more
42%
level
25%
Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
33%

Concordia Elbląg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Concordia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concordia Elbląg vs Sokół Aleksandrów

Sokół Aleksandrów beat Concordia Elbląg 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa in Elbląg.