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Sokół Aleksandrów vs Bełchatów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Bełchatów
Bełchatów
8/24/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów40%
×Draw24%
Bełchatów36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.53
Bełchatów
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.08
Bełchatów
1.37

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50
Bełchatów
1.98

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par
Bełchatów+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Bełchatów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw
64%
Sokół Aleksandrów or Bełchatów
76%
Draw or Bełchatów
60%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
19%
Bełchatów wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
78%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
45%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
20%
Bełchatów 1+ goals
76%
Bełchatów 2+ goals
42%
Bełchatów 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
53%
Bełchatów (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Bełchatów away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.98 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Bełchatów defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.53

Bełchatów attack 1.37 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
40%
level
24%
Bełchatów scores more
36%

Sokół Aleksandrów at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sokół Aleksandrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Sokół Aleksandrów 0–3 Bełchatów

Bełchatów beat Sokół Aleksandrów 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka in Aleksandrów Łódzki.