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Bełchatów vs Sokół Aleksandrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Bełchatów
Bełchatów
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
3/22/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bełchatów49%
×Draw23%
Sokół Aleksandrów28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bełchatów
1.77
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.29

Bełchatów creates 37% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

creates per match

Bełchatów
1.82
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.13

allows per match

Bełchatów
1.45
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.71

finishing

Bełchatów+0.00on par
Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bełchatów ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bełchatów or draw
72%
Bełchatów or Sokół Aleksandrów
77%
Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów
51%

Winning margin

Bełchatów wins by 2+
26%
Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bełchatów 1+ goals
83%
Bełchatów 2+ goals
53%
Bełchatów 3+ goals
26%
Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
72%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
37%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bełchatów (draw refunded)
63%
Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bełchatów at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bełchatów attack 1.82 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Bełchatów defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bełchatów scores more
49%
level
23%
Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
28%

Bełchatów at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bełchatów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bełchatów vs Sokół Aleksandrów

Bełchatów beat Sokół Aleksandrów 3-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion GKS-u in Bełchatów.