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Sohar vs Oman Club — Professional League 2019

Sohar
Sohar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oman Club
Oman Club
5/8/2025Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 22Sohar Regional Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Sohar40%
×Draw29%
Oman Club30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sohar
1.18
Oman Club
0.98

Sohar creates 20% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

creates per match

Sohar
1.23
Oman Club
1.04

allows per match

Sohar
0.91
Oman Club
1.13

finishing

Sohar+0.00on par
Oman Club+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sohar ↓

Oman Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sohar or draw
70%
Sohar or Oman Club
71%
Draw or Oman Club
60%

Winning margin

Sohar wins by 2+
17%
Oman Club wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sohar 1+ goals
69%
Sohar 2+ goals
33%
Sohar 3+ goals
12%
Oman Club 1+ goals
62%
Oman Club 2+ goals
26%
Oman Club 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sohar (draw refunded)
57%
Oman Club (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sohar at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 79 matches

Oman Club away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sohar attack 1.23 + Oman Club defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Oman Club attack 1.04 + Sohar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sohar scores more
40%
level
29%
Oman Club scores more
30%

Sohar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Sohar 2–0 Oman Club

Sohar beat Oman Club 2-0 in Professional League on May 8, 2025.

The match was played at Sohar Regional Sports Complex in Sohar.