Oman Club 0–0 Sohar: Result & Stats

Oman Club

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sohar

2/23/2024

Professional League · Round 12Al-Seeb Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Oman Club40%

×Draw29%

Sohar31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oman ClubExpected goals in this matchSohar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.04

Oman Club

1.21

Sohar

1.04

Oman Club creates 16% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 78 away

1.03

creates per match

1.10

0.97

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Oman Club

1.03

Sohar

1.10

allows per match

Oman Club

0.97

Sohar

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oman Club+0.00on par

Sohar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oman Club ↓

Sohar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Oman Club or draw

69%

Oman Club or Sohar

71%

Draw or Sohar

60%

Winning margin

Oman Club wins by 2+

17%

Sohar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Oman Club 1+ goals

70%

Oman Club 2+ goals

34%

Oman Club 3+ goals

12%

Sohar 1+ goals

65%

Sohar 2+ goals

28%

Sohar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Oman Club (draw refunded)

56%

Sohar (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oman Club at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.97 · 79 matches

Sohar away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oman Club attack 1.03 + Sohar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sohar attack 1.10 + Oman Club defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oman Club scores more

40%

level

29%

Sohar scores more

31%

Oman Club at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oman Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff