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Sogndal vs Stromsgodset — 1. Division 2026

Sogndal
Sogndal
Preview
15:00
Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
8/30/20261. Division1. Division · Round 20Fosshaugane Campus
42%
Stromsgodset
model favours
37%21%42%

Both teams score in 88% of Sogndal’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
75%
over 2.5 goals
74%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sogndal37%
×Draw21%
Stromsgodset42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sogndal
1.89
Stromsgodset
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sogndal
1.78
Stromsgodset
2.71

allows per match

Sogndal
1.32
Stromsgodset
2.00

finishing

Sogndal+0.00on par
Stromsgodset+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 75Under: 2575%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 74No: 2674%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal ↓

Stromsgodset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Sogndal or draw
58%
Sogndal or Stromsgodset
79%
Draw or Stromsgodset
63%

Winning margin

Sogndal wins by 2+
19%
Stromsgodset wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sogndal 1+ goals
85%
Sogndal 2+ goals
56%
Sogndal 3+ goals
29%
Stromsgodset 1+ goals
87%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
60%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Sogndal (draw refunded)
47%
Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 2.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal attack 1.78 + Stromsgodset defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Stromsgodset attack 2.71 + Sogndal defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sogndal scores more
37%
level
21%
Stromsgodset scores more
42%

Stromsgodset at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sogndal score first in only 29% of matches
  • Stromsgodset have scored in 8 games running
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (71% and 70% over 2.5)
  • 71% of Sogndal’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Stromsgodset have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sogndal
LWLLW
Stromsgodset
LDDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sogndal face Stromsgodset (1. Division)

1. Division returns with Sogndal hosting Stromsgodset. Match starts August 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sogndal host Stromsgodset at Fosshaugane Campus.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.