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Sogndal U19 vs Rosenborg U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Sogndal U19
Sogndal U19
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Rosenborg U19
Rosenborg U19
3/14/2024Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 5Fosshaugane Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sogndal U1949%
×Draw19%
Rosenborg U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sogndal U19
2.70
Rosenborg U19
2.21

Sogndal U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 21 away

creates per match

Sogndal U19
2.58
Rosenborg U19
2.10

allows per match

Sogndal U19
2.33
Rosenborg U19
2.81

finishing

Sogndal U19+0.00on par
Rosenborg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal U19 ↓

Rosenborg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Sogndal U19 or draw
67%
Sogndal U19 or Rosenborg U19
81%
Draw or Rosenborg U19
51%

Winning margin

Sogndal U19 wins by 2+
30%
Rosenborg U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sogndal U19 1+ goals
93%
Sogndal U19 2+ goals
75%
Sogndal U19 3+ goals
50%
Rosenborg U19 1+ goals
89%
Rosenborg U19 2+ goals
65%
Rosenborg U19 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Sogndal U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Rosenborg U19 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 2.33 · 24 matches

Rosenborg U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 2.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal U19 attack 2.58 + Rosenborg U19 defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.70

Rosenborg U19 attack 2.10 + Sogndal U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sogndal U19 scores more
49%
level
19%
Rosenborg U19 scores more
33%

Sogndal U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sogndal U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nasjonal U19 Champions League: Sogndal U19 4–3 Rosenborg U19

Sogndal U19 beat Rosenborg U19 4-3 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on March 14, 2024.

The match was played at Fosshaugane Campus in Sogndal.