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Rosenborg U19 vs Sogndal U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Rosenborg U19
Rosenborg U19
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Sogndal U19
Sogndal U19
2/17/2024Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 2SalMar Banen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Rosenborg U1953%
×Draw18%
Sogndal U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosenborg U19
2.83
Sogndal U19
2.08

Rosenborg U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Rosenborg U19
2.40
Sogndal U19
1.45

allows per match

Rosenborg U19
2.70
Sogndal U19
3.25

finishing

Rosenborg U19+0.00on par
Sogndal U19+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg U19 ↓

Sogndal U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Rosenborg U19 or draw
71%
Rosenborg U19 or Sogndal U19
82%
Draw or Sogndal U19
47%

Winning margin

Rosenborg U19 wins by 2+
34%
Sogndal U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rosenborg U19 1+ goals
94%
Rosenborg U19 2+ goals
77%
Rosenborg U19 3+ goals
53%
Sogndal U19 1+ goals
87%
Sogndal U19 2+ goals
61%
Sogndal U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Sogndal U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg U19 at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.70 · 20 matches

Sogndal U19 away — creates 1.45, concedes 3.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg U19 attack 2.40 + Sogndal U19 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.83

Sogndal U19 attack 1.45 + Rosenborg U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rosenborg U19 scores more
53%
level
18%
Sogndal U19 scores more
29%

Rosenborg U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rosenborg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rosenborg U19 vs Sogndal U19

Rosenborg U19 beat Sogndal U19 4-2 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at SalMar Banen Kunstgress in Trondheim.