Sogndal U19 1–3 Molde U19: Result & Stats

Sogndal U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Molde U19

1/27/2024

Nasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 1Fosshaugane Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sogndal U1940%

×Draw19%

Molde U1941%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sogndal U19Expected goals in this matchMolde U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

2.41

Sogndal U19

2.40

Molde U19

2.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

2.58

creates per match

2.48

2.33

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Sogndal U19

2.58

Molde U19

2.48

allows per match

Sogndal U19

2.33

Molde U19

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogndal U19+0.00on par

Molde U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal U19 ↓

Molde U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Sogndal U19 or draw

59%

Sogndal U19 or Molde U19

81%

Draw or Molde U19

60%

Winning margin

Sogndal U19 wins by 2+

23%

Molde U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Sogndal U19 1+ goals

91%

Sogndal U19 2+ goals

69%

Sogndal U19 3+ goals

42%

Molde U19 1+ goals

91%

Molde U19 2+ goals

69%

Molde U19 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Sogndal U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Molde U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 2.33 · 24 matches

Molde U19 away — creates 2.48, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal U19 attack 2.58 + Molde U19 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.40

Molde U19 attack 2.48 + Sogndal U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sogndal U19 scores more

40%

level

19%

Molde U19 scores more

41%

Molde U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Molde U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff