Molde U19 4–1 Sogndal U19: Result & Stats

Molde U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sogndal U19

4/3/2024

Nasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 6Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Molde U1966%

×Draw16%

Sogndal U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molde U19Expected goals in this matchSogndal U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.10

1.64

Molde U19

3.10

Sogndal U19

1.64

Molde U19 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 20 away

2.96

creates per match

1.45

1.83

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Molde U19

2.96

Sogndal U19

1.45

allows per match

Molde U19

1.83

Sogndal U19

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molde U19+0.00on par

Sogndal U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde U19 ↓

Sogndal U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Molde U19 or draw

82%

Molde U19 or Sogndal U19

84%

Draw or Sogndal U19

34%

Winning margin

Molde U19 wins by 2+

46%

Sogndal U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Molde U19 1+ goals

95%

Molde U19 2+ goals

81%

Molde U19 3+ goals

58%

Sogndal U19 1+ goals

81%

Sogndal U19 2+ goals

49%

Sogndal U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Molde U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Sogndal U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde U19 at home — creates 2.96, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Sogndal U19 away — creates 1.45, concedes 3.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde U19 attack 2.96 + Sogndal U19 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.10

Sogndal U19 attack 1.45 + Molde U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Molde U19 scores more

66%

level

16%

Sogndal U19 scores more

18%

Molde U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Molde U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff