Sogndal U19 3–0 Aalesunds U19: Result & Stats

Sogndal U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aalesunds U19

3/2/2024

Nasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 3Fosshaugane Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sogndal U1945%

×Draw19%

Aalesunds U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sogndal U19Expected goals in this matchAalesunds U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

2.28

Sogndal U19

2.54

Aalesunds U19

2.28

Sogndal U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

2.58

creates per match

2.23

2.33

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Sogndal U19

2.58

Aalesunds U19

2.23

allows per match

Sogndal U19

2.33

Aalesunds U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogndal U19+0.00on par

Aalesunds U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal U19 ↓

Aalesunds U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Sogndal U19 or draw

64%

Sogndal U19 or Aalesunds U19

81%

Draw or Aalesunds U19

55%

Winning margin

Sogndal U19 wins by 2+

27%

Aalesunds U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sogndal U19 1+ goals

92%

Sogndal U19 2+ goals

72%

Sogndal U19 3+ goals

46%

Aalesunds U19 1+ goals

90%

Aalesunds U19 2+ goals

66%

Aalesunds U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Sogndal U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Aalesunds U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 2.33 · 24 matches

Aalesunds U19 away — creates 2.23, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal U19 attack 2.58 + Aalesunds U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.54

Aalesunds U19 attack 2.23 + Sogndal U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sogndal U19 scores more

45%

level

19%

Aalesunds U19 scores more

36%

Sogndal U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sogndal U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff