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Aalesunds U19 vs Sogndal U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Aalesunds U19
Aalesunds U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sogndal U19
Sogndal U19
3/23/2024Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 4Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Aalesunds U1953%
×Draw19%
Sogndal U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesunds U19
2.45
Sogndal U19
1.73

Aalesunds U19 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Aalesunds U19
1.65
Sogndal U19
1.45

allows per match

Aalesunds U19
2.00
Sogndal U19
3.25

finishing

Aalesunds U19+0.00on par
Sogndal U19+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesunds U19 ↓

Sogndal U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Aalesunds U19 or draw
73%
Aalesunds U19 or Sogndal U19
81%
Draw or Sogndal U19
47%

Winning margin

Aalesunds U19 wins by 2+
33%
Sogndal U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aalesunds U19 1+ goals
91%
Aalesunds U19 2+ goals
70%
Aalesunds U19 3+ goals
44%
Sogndal U19 1+ goals
82%
Sogndal U19 2+ goals
52%
Sogndal U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Aalesunds U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Sogndal U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesunds U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Sogndal U19 away — creates 1.45, concedes 3.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesunds U19 attack 1.65 + Sogndal U19 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.45

Sogndal U19 attack 1.45 + Aalesunds U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Aalesunds U19 scores more
53%
level
19%
Sogndal U19 scores more
27%

Aalesunds U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Aalesunds U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aalesunds U19 vs Sogndal U19

Aalesunds U19 beat Sogndal U19 2-1 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.