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Sogndal II vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Sogndal II
Sogndal II
FT
1 – 1
HamKam II
HamKam II
5/28/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 7Fosshaugane Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sogndal II51%
×Draw20%
HamKam II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sogndal II
2.38
HamKam II
1.77

Sogndal II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sogndal II
2.23
HamKam II
1.62

allows per match

Sogndal II
1.92
HamKam II
2.54

finishing

Sogndal II+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal II ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Sogndal II or draw
71%
Sogndal II or HamKam II
80%
Draw or HamKam II
49%

Winning margin

Sogndal II wins by 2+
31%
HamKam II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sogndal II 1+ goals
91%
Sogndal II 2+ goals
68%
Sogndal II 3+ goals
42%
HamKam II 1+ goals
83%
HamKam II 2+ goals
53%
HamKam II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sogndal II (draw refunded)
64%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

HamKam II away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal II attack 2.23 + HamKam II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.38

HamKam II attack 1.62 + Sogndal II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sogndal II scores more
51%
level
20%
HamKam II scores more
29%

Sogndal II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sogndal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Sogndal II 1–1 HamKam II

Sogndal II and HamKam II drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Fosshaugane Campus in Sogndal.