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HamKam II vs Sogndal II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

HamKam II
HamKam II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Sogndal II
Sogndal II
10/2/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 22Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

HamKam II69%
×Draw15%
Sogndal II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HamKam II
3.38
Sogndal II
1.66

HamKam II creates 104% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

HamKam II
3.46
Sogndal II
1.46

allows per match

HamKam II
1.85
Sogndal II
3.31

finishing

HamKam II+0.00on par
Sogndal II+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HamKam II ↓

Sogndal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

HamKam II or draw
84%
HamKam II or Sogndal II
85%
Draw or Sogndal II
31%

Winning margin

HamKam II wins by 2+
50%
Sogndal II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

HamKam II 1+ goals
96%
HamKam II 2+ goals
84%
HamKam II 3+ goals
64%
Sogndal II 1+ goals
81%
Sogndal II 2+ goals
49%
Sogndal II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

HamKam II (draw refunded)
81%
Sogndal II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HamKam II at home — creates 3.46, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Sogndal II away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HamKam II attack 3.46 + Sogndal II defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 3.38

Sogndal II attack 1.46 + HamKam II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

HamKam II scores more
69%
level
15%
Sogndal II scores more
16%

HamKam II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "HamKam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HamKam II vs Sogndal II

HamKam II and Sogndal II drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.