Sogdiana 1–1 Olmaliq: Result & Stats | Super League

Sogdiana

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Olmaliq

I. Tukhtakhujaev 88' (OG)

Rubén Sánchez 11'

10/21/2024

Super League · Round 21So'g'diyona Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sogdiana44%

×Draw26%

Olmaliq30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogdianaExpected goals in this matchOlmaliq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.19

Sogdiana

1.50

Olmaliq

1.19

Sogdiana creates 26% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 31 away

1.68

creates per match

1.10

1.27

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sogdiana

1.68

Olmaliq

1.10

allows per match

Sogdiana

1.27

Olmaliq

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogdiana+0.00on par

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogdiana ↓

Olmaliq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sogdiana or draw

70%

Sogdiana or Olmaliq

74%

Draw or Olmaliq

56%

Winning margin

Sogdiana wins by 2+

22%

Olmaliq wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sogdiana 1+ goals

78%

Sogdiana 2+ goals

44%

Sogdiana 3+ goals

19%

Olmaliq 1+ goals

70%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

33%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sogdiana (draw refunded)

60%

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogdiana at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

Olmaliq away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogdiana attack 1.68 + Olmaliq defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Olmaliq attack 1.10 + Sogdiana defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sogdiana scores more

44%

level

26%

Olmaliq scores more

30%

Sogdiana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sogdiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Rubén Sánchez

66'

S. Andreev

77'

F. Omonkeldiyev← S. Andreev

77'

S. Khoshimov← S. Mavlonqulov

80'

A. Sentoku

85'

U. Sultonov← V. Jovović

88'

A. Abdurahmonov← K. Daci

88'

A. Sarimsoqov← M. Kosimov

88'

S. Gadoev← K. Giyosov

88'

I. TukhtakhujaevOwn goal

90+5'

N. Abdurazzoqov← A. Sentoku

Sogdiana

Olmaliq

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Bošković

77'▲F. Omonkeldiyev←▼S. Andreev

77'▲S. Khoshimov←▼S. Mavlonqulov

85'▲U. Sultonov←▼V. Jovović

Sogdiana substitutes

OmonkeldiyevKhoshimovSultonovNoskoYoqubovFozilovSobirovQulmatovSindarov

Manager: M. Kasimov

88'▲A. Abdurahmonov←▼K. Daci

88'▲A. Sarimsoqov←▼M. Kosimov

88'▲S. Gadoev←▼K. Giyosov

90+5'▲N. Abdurazzoqov←▼A. Sentoku

Olmaliq substitutes

AbdurahmonovSarimsoqovGadoevAbdurazzoqovUlmasalievYoqubovBusinovKlepačRakhmanov

Super League: Sogdiana 1–1 Olmaliq

Sogdiana and Olmaliq drew 1-1 in Super League on October 21, 2024.

Goals: Rubén Sánchez (11'), I. Tukhtakhujaev (88' o.g.).

The match was played at So'g'diyona Sport Majmuasi in Jizzax.

Sogdiana vs Olmaliq — Super League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Sogdiana 1–1 Olmaliq