Olmaliq 5–3 Sogdiana: Result & Stats | Super League

Olmaliq

FT

5 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Sogdiana

I. Rukhadze 0 90+10'

A. Abdurahmonov 84', 75'

K. Giyosov 15'

S. Qulmatov 10' (OG)

L. Doriev 72' (pen), 21'

Z. Petrović 41'

5/19/2024

Super League · Round 8Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Olmaliq55%

×Draw23%

Sogdiana22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlmaliqExpected goals in this matchSogdiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.08

Olmaliq

1.83

Sogdiana

1.08

Olmaliq creates 69% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 22 away

1.84

creates per match

1.14

1.03

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Olmaliq

1.84

Sogdiana

1.14

allows per match

Olmaliq

1.03

Sogdiana

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Sogdiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Sogdiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw

78%

Olmaliq or Sogdiana

77%

Draw or Sogdiana

45%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+

31%

Sogdiana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals

84%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

54%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

28%

Sogdiana 1+ goals

66%

Sogdiana 2+ goals

29%

Sogdiana 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

71%

Sogdiana (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Sogdiana away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 1.84 + Sogdiana defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sogdiana attack 1.14 + Olmaliq defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Olmaliq scores more

55%

level

23%

Sogdiana scores more

22%

Olmaliq at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

S. QulmatovOwn goal

14'

Z. Petrovic

15'

K. Giyosov

19'

O. Ahadov← S. Qulmatov

21'

L. Doriev

25'

L. DorievGoal Disallowed - offside

41'

Z. Petrović

46'

A. Nosko← S. Mavlonqulov

65'

A. Abdurahmonov← A. Kholmurodov

65'

I. Tukhtakhujaev← M. Kosimov

72'

L. DorievPenalty

75'

A. Abdurahmonov

77'

N. Soyibov← S. Andreev

81'

E. Begimov← A. Bahromov

81'

G. Papava← B. Kasymov

81'

I. Rukhadze← K. Giyosov

84'

A. Abdurahmonov

86'

A. Salimov← J. Yoqubov

90'

A. Komilov

90+10'

I. Rukhadze 0

Olmaliq

Sogdiana

Mitrović

▼

Andreev

Zoteev

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Giyosov

Manager: M. Kasimov

65'▲A. Abdurahmonov←▼A. Kholmurodov

65'▲I. Tukhtakhujaev←▼M. Kosimov

81'▲E. Begimov←▼A. Bahromov

81'▲G. Papava←▼B. Kasymov

81'▲I. Rukhadze←▼K. Giyosov

Olmaliq substitutes

AbdurahmonovTukhtakhujaevBegimovPapavaRukhadzeIlyosovŠkrbićToshmatovAkhrorov

Manager: I. Bošković

19'▲O. Ahadov←▼S. Qulmatov

46'▲A. Nosko←▼S. Mavlonqulov

77'▲N. Soyibov←▼S. Andreev

86'▲A. Salimov←▼J. Yoqubov

Sogdiana substitutes

AhadovNoskoSoyibovSalimovOmonkeldiyevAbdumutalovSobirovKhoshimovSindarov

Super League: Olmaliq 5–3 Sogdiana

Olmaliq beat Sogdiana 5-3 in Super League on May 19, 2024.

Goals: S. Qulmatov (10' o.g.), K. Giyosov (15'), L. Doriev (21', 72' pen), Z. Petrović (41'), A. Abdurahmonov (75', 84'), I. Rukhadze 0 (90+10').

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Almalyk.

Olmaliq vs Sogdiana — Super League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Olmaliq 5–3 Sogdiana