Sogdiana 2–2 Lokomotiv: Result & Stats

Sogdiana

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Lokomotiv

J. Khasanov 21'

S. Norxonov 6'

J. Jumaboyev 40'

J. Mpasko 2'

11/7/2022

Super League · Round 25So'g'diyona Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Sogdiana42%

×Draw27%

Lokomotiv31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogdianaExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.11

Sogdiana

1.33

Lokomotiv

1.11

Sogdiana creates 20% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 74 away

1.41

creates per match

1.16

1.07

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sogdiana

1.41

Lokomotiv

1.16

allows per match

Sogdiana

1.07

Lokomotiv

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogdiana+0.00on par

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogdiana ↓

Lokomotiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sogdiana or draw

69%

Sogdiana or Lokomotiv

73%

Draw or Lokomotiv

58%

Winning margin

Sogdiana wins by 2+

19%

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sogdiana 1+ goals

74%

Sogdiana 2+ goals

38%

Sogdiana 3+ goals

15%

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

67%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

30%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sogdiana (draw refunded)

57%

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogdiana at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogdiana attack 1.41 + Lokomotiv defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lokomotiv attack 1.16 + Sogdiana defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sogdiana scores more

42%

level

27%

Lokomotiv scores more

31%

Sogdiana at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sogdiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

6'

21'

36'

40'

46'

A. Manazarov← A. Nomanov

46'

V. Denisov← L. Čermelj

59'

I. Rashidkhanov

61'

A. Alijonov← J. Mpasko

61'

A. Salimov← M. Safarov

61'

J. Jaloliddinov← M. Jumayev

70'

H. Gafurov← D. Nasridinov

79'

S. Komilov← I. Rashidkhanov

86'

A. Abdurahmonov← N. Toshpo‘latov

Sogdiana

Lokomotiv

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Y. Nazarov

46'▲A. Manazarov←▼A. Nomanov

46'▲V. Denisov←▼L. Čermelj

70'▲H. Gafurov←▼D. Nasridinov

Sogdiana substitutes

ManazarovDenisovGafurovNasimovTalkhatovObšivačAbdullayevMavlonqulovSalomov

Manager: D. Korostichenko

61'▲A. Alijonov←▼J. Mpasko

61'▲A. Salimov←▼M. Safarov

61'▲J. Jaloliddinov←▼M. Jumayev

79'▲S. Komilov←▼I. Rashidkhanov

86'▲A. Abdurahmonov←▼N. Toshpo‘latov

Lokomotiv substitutes

AlijonovSalimovJaloliddinovKomilovAbdurahmonovAbdualimovNartadjievSamuelMirzayev

Super League: Sogdiana 2–2 Lokomotiv

Sogdiana and Lokomotiv drew 2-2 in Super League on November 7, 2022.

Goals: J. Mpasko (2'), S. Norxonov (6'), J. Khasanov (21'), J. Jumaboyev (40').

The match was played at So'g'diyona Sport Majmuasi in Jizzax.

Sogdiana vs Lokomotiv — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Sogdiana 2–2 Lokomotiv