Lokomotiv 0–1 Sogdiana: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sogdiana

S. Norxonov 18'

6/17/2022

Super League · Round 12Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Lokomotiv46%

×Draw26%

Sogdiana28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokomotivExpected goals in this matchSogdiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.11

Lokomotiv

1.48

Sogdiana

1.11

Lokomotiv creates 33% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 102 away

1.55

creates per match

1.10

1.13

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Lokomotiv

1.55

Sogdiana

1.10

allows per match

Lokomotiv

1.13

Sogdiana

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Sogdiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Sogdiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw

72%

Lokomotiv or Sogdiana

74%

Draw or Sogdiana

54%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

23%

Sogdiana wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

77%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

43%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

19%

Sogdiana 1+ goals

67%

Sogdiana 2+ goals

30%

Sogdiana 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

62%

Sogdiana (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Sogdiana away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.55 + Sogdiana defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sogdiana attack 1.10 + Lokomotiv defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lokomotiv scores more

46%

level

26%

Sogdiana scores more

28%

Lokomotiv at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

S. Norxonov

45+1'

S. Kodirkulov

46'

J. Jumaboyev← A. Salimov

46'

N. Toshpo‘latov← O. Samuel

53'

K. Makharadze

54'

D. Abdumannopov← J. Kaxramonov

57'

D. Turopov

59'

A. Nomanov← K. Khalilov

72'

A. Alijonov← I. Rashidkhanov

72'

S. Komilov← G. Gulyamov

77'

E. Oripov← S. Djurabekov

77'

B. Farkhadov← S. Norxonov

77'

M. Bikmaev← J. Khasanov

81'

M. Jumayev← J. Mpasko

86'

J. Obsivac

Lokomotiv

Sogdiana

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Korostichenko

46'▲J. Jumaboyev←▼A. Salimov

46'▲N. Toshpo‘latov←▼O. Samuel

72'▲A. Alijonov←▼I. Rashidkhanov

72'▲S. Komilov←▼G. Gulyamov

81'▲M. Jumayev←▼J. Mpasko

Lokomotiv substitutes

JumaboyevToshpo‘latovAlijonovKomilovJumayevAbdurahmonovOmonovAlijanovHasanov

Manager: U. Bakaev

54'▲D. Abdumannopov←▼J. Kaxramonov

59'▲A. Nomanov←▼K. Khalilov

77'▲E. Oripov←▼S. Djurabekov

77'▲B. Farkhadov←▼S. Norxonov

77'▲M. Bikmaev←▼J. Khasanov

Sogdiana substitutes

AbdumannopovNomanovOripovFarkhadovBikmaevManazarovTalkhatovAbdullayevQulmatov

Match Recap: Lokomotiv vs Sogdiana

Sogdiana beat Lokomotiv 1-0 in Super League on June 17, 2022.

Goals: S. Norxonov (18').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Tashkent.

Lokomotiv vs Sogdiana — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lokomotiv vs Sogdiana