Sogdiana 2–1 Kokand-1912: Result & Stats

Sogdiana

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Kokand-1912

L. Doriev 41', 35' (pen)

M. Khasanov 47'

7/4/2025

Super League · Round 15Sogdiana Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Sogdiana49%

×Draw26%

Kokand-191225%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogdianaExpected goals in this matchKokand-1912

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.98

Sogdiana

1.50

Kokand-1912

0.98

Sogdiana creates 53% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 72 away

1.41

creates per match

0.88

1.07

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sogdiana

1.41

Kokand-1912

0.88

allows per match

Sogdiana

1.07

Kokand-1912

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogdiana+0.00on par

Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogdiana ↓

Kokand-1912 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sogdiana or draw

75%

Sogdiana or Kokand-1912

74%

Draw or Kokand-1912

51%

Winning margin

Sogdiana wins by 2+

25%

Kokand-1912 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sogdiana 1+ goals

78%

Sogdiana 2+ goals

44%

Sogdiana 3+ goals

19%

Kokand-1912 1+ goals

62%

Kokand-1912 2+ goals

26%

Kokand-1912 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sogdiana (draw refunded)

67%

Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogdiana at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

Kokand-1912 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogdiana attack 1.41 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kokand-1912 attack 0.88 + Sogdiana defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sogdiana scores more

49%

level

26%

Kokand-1912 scores more

25%

Sogdiana at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sogdiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

L. DorievPenalty

41'

L. Doriev

46'

S. Beshimov← B. Kosimov

47'

M. Khasanov

58'

B. Abdurakhimov← I. Malikdzhonov

59'

J. Jaloliddinov← S. Andreev

68'

S. Rakhmanov← N. Soyibov

74'

Y. Kondratyuk← J. Kholturaev

76'

J. Jaloliddinov

82'

E. Pandzhshanbe← J. Kakhramonov

88'

J. Yakubov

89'

A. Khayrullaev← A. Salimov

Sogdiana

Kokand-1912

13

Isokov

6

▼

5

15

19

20

▼

Malikdzho

8

▼

Kosimov

7

Gvazava

9

Khusanov

22

⚽

Khasanov

14

▼

27

4

3

2

8

32

▼

Soyibov

28

▼

Andreev

14

⚽2

Doriev

19

▼

Kakhramon

7

Mustafoku

9

Mavlonkul

59'▲J. Jaloliddinov←▼S. Andreev

68'▲S. Rakhmanov←▼N. Soyibov

82'▲E. Pandzhshanbe←▼J. Kakhramonov

Sogdiana substitutes

21Sobirov5Dzhumatov10Abdurakhmonov17Pandzhshanbe18Nurmatov33Rakhmanov46Abdumajidov70Jaloliddinov99Sultonov

46'▲S. Beshimov←▼B. Kosimov

58'▲B. Abdurakhimov←▼I. Malikdzhonov

74'▲Y. Kondratyuk←▼J. Kholturaev

89'▲A. Khayrullaev←▼A. Salimov

Kokand-1912 substitutes

1Nartadzhiev2Mirodilov10Gofurov11Beshimov17Khayrullaev18Abdurakhimov30Mukhtorov37Yoldoshev69Kondratyuk