Sogdiana 4–2 Dinamo Samarqand: Result & Stats

Sogdiana

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Dinamo Samarqand

S. Sindarov 90+5'

K. Mustafoqulov 65'

S. Abdurahmonov 18'

V. Jovović 9'

S. Shaakhmedov 53'

Ratinho 45'

6/28/2024

Super League · Round 13So'g'diyona Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Sogdiana47%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Samarqand28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogdianaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Samarqand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.15

Sogdiana

1.57

Dinamo Samarqand

1.15

Sogdiana creates 37% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 62 away

1.41

creates per match

1.23

1.07

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Sogdiana

1.41

Dinamo Samarqand

1.23

allows per match

Sogdiana

1.07

Dinamo Samarqand

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogdiana+0.00on par

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogdiana ↓

Dinamo Samarqand →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sogdiana or draw

72%

Sogdiana or Dinamo Samarqand

75%

Draw or Dinamo Samarqand

53%

Winning margin

Sogdiana wins by 2+

24%

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sogdiana 1+ goals

79%

Sogdiana 2+ goals

46%

Sogdiana 3+ goals

21%

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

68%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

32%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sogdiana (draw refunded)

63%

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogdiana at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

Dinamo Samarqand away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.74 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogdiana attack 1.41 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.57

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.23 + Sogdiana defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sogdiana scores more

47%

level

25%

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

28%

Sogdiana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sogdiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

V. Jovović

18'

S. Abdurahmonov

45'

Ratinho

46'

S. Shaakhmedov← D. Rakhmatullaev

48'

N. Soyibov

53'

S. Shaakhmedov

62'

J. Yoqubov← S. Abdurahmonov

62'

S. Mavlonqulov← V. Jovović

63'

S. Kulmatov

65'

K. Mustafoqulov

69'

K. Iminov← U. Abdullayev

69'

K. Khalilov← A. Muydinov

69'

V. Kozak← O. Abdumajidov

77'

O. Zoteev

83'

A. Khozhimirzaev

83'

S. Kulmatov

83'

S. Kulmatov

85'

M. Abdumutalov← N. Soyibov

87'

Z. Petrovic

89'

S. Sindarov← Z. Petrović

89'

E. Yaghr← F. Narh

90+5'

S. Sindarov

Sogdiana

Dinamo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Jovović

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: I. Bošković

62'▲J. Yoqubov←▼S. Abdurahmonov

62'▲S. Mavlonqulov←▼V. Jovović

85'▲M. Abdumutalov←▼N. Soyibov

89'▲S. Sindarov←▼Z. Petrović

Sogdiana substitutes

YoqubovMavlonqulovAbdumutalovSindarovSalimovOmonkeldiyevSobirovAhadovErkinov

Manager: V. Abramov

46'▲S. Shaakhmedov←▼D. Rakhmatullaev

69'▲K. Iminov←▼U. Abdullayev

69'▲K. Khalilov←▼A. Muydinov

69'▲V. Kozak←▼O. Abdumajidov

89'▲E. Yaghr←▼F. Narh

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

ShaakhmedovIminovKhalilovKozakYaghrNasimovTemirovRahmatovOqbutayev

Super League: Sogdiana 4–2 Dinamo Samarqand

Sogdiana beat Dinamo Samarqand 4-2 in Super League on June 28, 2024.

Goals: V. Jovović (9'), S. Abdurahmonov (18'), Ratinho (45'), S. Shaakhmedov (53'), K. Mustafoqulov (65'), S. Sindarov (90+5').

The match was played at So'g'diyona Sport Majmuasi in Jizzax.

Sogdiana vs Dinamo Samarqand — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Sogdiana 4–2 Dinamo Samarqand